Here's How Brands Can Stay Strong As Skincare Category Growth Stalls

In a recent Substack post, Rachel Hirsch, managing partner at Wellness Growth Ventures, wrote, “Skincare is entering a new era where consolidation > endless expansion. With a crowded market drowning in identical products, the skincare world has hit peak congestion. Consumers, buried in complicated routines and fragmented care, are ready for a more seamless experience.”

Hirsch’s proclamation of consolidation comes after a 2024 when market research firm Circana estimated skincare was the slowest-growing prestige beauty category, at 1% growth in dollars. It eked out 2% growth in the mass market. In additional signs of skincare category softness, in the last reported quarter, Drunk Elephant’s sales plummeted over 60%, Estée Lauder’s skincare sales dropped 12%, and La Prairie’s sales dipped 6.2%. La Prairie and Nivea parent company Beiersdorf anticipates its skincare sales decreasing this year.

Almost three years ago, we looked ahead at the possible end of the skincare boom and asked nine beauty experts what beauty brands should do with that end conceivably around the corner. Now that it appears to be here, for the latest edition of our ongoing series posing questions relevant to indie beauty, we asked 13 beauty experts the following: What strategies should skincare brands be pursuing in a slow-growth environment for skincare? What skincare brands will be the winners and losers? What predictions do you have for the skincare category over the next year?

Rachel Roberts Mattox Brand Developer and Strategist

While data signals a clear slowdown in skincare, this doesn’t mean brands are without opportunity. It simply means the landscape is shifting and the playbook for success is changing. Rachel Hirsch is absolutely right. Skincare is entering a new phase where consolidation is more strategic than endless expansion.

Brands that win in this slow-growth environment will understand and adapt to two main forces driving this shift: a consumer desire for intentional consumption over impulse-driven overconsumption and a desire for greater value in our uncertain economic reality.

First, consumers are overwhelmed by an oversaturation of products to choose from, and an onslaught of messaging coming from all angles across all channels. This is leading to consumer exhaustion. The winners in this landscape are brands with a very clear message and value proposition. They do not chase trends and launch products for the sake of newness, but instead champion fewer, better products that do more with less.

They deliver clean ingredient innovation that outperforms competitor brands. And they are intentional with their content and influencer strategies. They are leaning into customer loyalty, membership models and community building, not just new customer acquisition. And they do all of this while creating interesting, unexpected cross-category brand collaborations, which positions them as more than skincare, but part of a lifestyle.

Prestige brands that are doing this well are still winning because they've earned their customer's trust and loyalty. Brands that come to mind are U Beauty, Angela Caglia, Agent Nateur and Crown Affair, to name just a few.

In a season of economic uncertainty, many consumers are more discerning and are spending more thoughtfully, but that doesn’t mean they’re looking for the cheapest option. It means they want to understand the true value behind what they buy. Brands that educate consumers on why quality skincare costs more and provide transparency in pricing, sourcing, and formulation will hold stronger ground than those caught in the discounting or dupe wars.

Patricia Valera Founder, Beautybrandr

It’s true that skincare may have officially hit its “enough already” moment. Consumers are overwhelmed, shelves are packed with lookalike serums, and the industry’s favorite playbook of endless, slightly different, launches isn’t working anymore. (Just like what happened with mascaras and razors —10 blades, anyone?).

The brands that win in this slow-growth era will be the ones that focus on differentiation, connection and actual efficacy, not just another gimmicky texture or trendy ingredient drop.

Here are some winning strategies for skincare brands:

Less noise, more substance—Customers don’t need another hydrating serum. They need fewer, better products that solve real problems.
Community over mass reach—The days of throwing money at ads and influencers and hoping for the best are over. Skincare brands need to develop deep, engaged communities, not just followers.
Clinical, proven and transparent—Trendy ingredients mean nothing without real results. Brands that back up their claims with science will stand out.
Real world retail strategy beats chasing virality—Going viral isn’t a business plan. Brands need to remember that there are more retail opportunities than just landing at Sephora or Ulta like local boutique beauty stores or high-end spas.
Authentic cultural or regional connection—There is still a lot of room in the industry for this avenue of differentiation. I would love to see more brands that honor unique beauty traditions and cater to unique cultural needs, whether they be historical, tribal, religious or even environmental.
Slower growth, stronger brand loyalty and profitability—Launching new products too often, too soon overwhelms customers and kills excitement. Growing slower promotes profitability over growth at any cost. A brand that builds strong margins and repeat customers will usually outlast those that chase rapid scale. CPG is not tech. Not every founder is looking for an exit plan.

Melissa Hibbert President and Chief Brand Strategist, Beauty Founders Agency Inc.

I am quite optimistic about skincare! The category's explosive growth has indeed cooled, and it will create challenges. However, I am more excited about opportunities for brands. It’s a great time for founders to innovate more around cultural ingredient storytelling, where brands authentically leveraging traditional ingredients with compelling heritage narratives.

Another area of opportunity is hyper-targeted problem solving, creative niche brands that focus on specific skin concerns with tangible results. Long gone are the days of brands pushing extensive routines when consumers are simplifying and brands relying exclusively on clinical language without emotional connection.

I often read reviews on comments on brand websites and pages where we are clearly seeing consumers are scrutinizing purchases more carefully. They want brands that deliver visible results at accessible price points along with efficacious formulas without the luxury markup.

Another strategy for brands to lean into is the "skinimalism" trend, offering multifunctional products that simplify routines while maintaining efficacy. This is a key, even for my skincare routine, because too many steps and products can be overwhelming to consumers.

Lastly, I cannot emphasize enough about community building, it is vital that brands have direct relationships with their customers through consistent email marketing, engaging social platforms, loyalty programs, and authentic storytelling will help brands weather the slowdown.

My three big predictions are:

The rise of heritage ingredient storytelling—Traditional ingredients with centuries of use will be reframed with both cultural significance and scientific validation. Brands connecting ingredients to cultural practices and regional traditions will create deeper emotional bonds with consumers.
Mental wellness integration—Skincare will increasingly position itself within holistic wellness routines, emphasizing stress reduction and emotional benefits alongside physical results.
Perimenopause and menopause solutions—The hormonal fluctuations during perimenopause and menopause create distinct skincare challenges that few brands adequately address. This represents a massive white space for brands to develop targeted solutions for concerns like extreme dryness, accelerated collagen loss and hormonal breakouts specific to this life stage.

Nikola Cline Founder, Brandettes

Skincare’s boom brought a flood of new product introductions and category innovation that were exciting to consumers at the time, but may not have made their way into core regimens for the long term. Brands that can help drive awareness through their overall messaging, PDP and influencer content about product essentials versus the add-ons will help their fans distinguish between the two.

Additionally, I recommend auditing via in-house or external resources the following areas and optimizing for success. The bottom line—try new things:

Channel strategy—Does this need to be refined or expanded? We have been big advocates of hospitality amenity programs as revenue-driving, but also as a low investment marketing vehicle.
Customer experience—Deepening a relationship with existing customers by rethinking loyalty programs, email marketing, promotion and education. What can you do differently to expand a consumer’s engagement with the brand while measuring impact?
Collaborations—Get creative about the company you keep. Collaborate with brands outside of beauty that have similar core values to help with awareness and promotion. An initiative doesn’t have to be massive, small social or email-driven programs can be engaging and profitable.
Level up PDP—Review and optimize your PDP content on brand.com and partner sites. Does your content educate and drive trust? Is it crafted with SEO in mind? It’s likely time for some type of refresh.

Tegan Brown Founder, Studio TFB

Traditionally, we’ve seen brands staying in their lane in terms of building credibility in one category. However, in order to survive the new era of beauty consumption, skincare-centered brands will need to work on diversifying their product offering by leaning into new categories and developing intentional ways to integrate products from adjacent categories to stay relevant.

The lines between beauty categories are blurring, and skincare brands need to realize that expanding into hair, body and wellness does more than just diversify their product range. It allows them to tap into new consumer needs while reinforcing their brand philosophy in a more holistic way.

Brands like Naturium, Summer Fridays and Monday Muse have done this successfully by maintaining a strong skincare-first approach, but integrating thoughtful formulations for hair and body. This kind of expansion isn’t just about selling more, it’s about staying relevant as consumers prioritize overall well-being and look for products that align with their lifestyle.

We’re also seeing brands take a more ingredient-led approach to expansion. For example, if a brand is known for its niacinamide serum, it might introduce a niacinamide-infused body lotion or scalp serum, creating a seamless experience for the consumer.

Lesley McIntosh Founder, Brand Botany Marketing Consultancy

It’s pretty amazing that skincare has been on a winning streak with double-digit growth for several years. While the current boom may be slowing, the next wave is just a few years away.

In the meantime, we may be entering a reset phase. The market is oversaturated and standing out is harder than ever—so many products, so many claims and a never-ending flood of social media trends. Even the most avid skincare consumers are drowning in options. It’s overwhelming.

PREDICTIONS

Economic pressures—rising inflation, tariffs, layoffs and recession concerns—will make consumers more selective. The desire for healthy skin isn’t going anywhere, but spending habits will shift. Consumers won’t just buy into the hype, they’ll be asking, “Does this work? Is it really worth it?”

This environment is primed for movements like “skinimalism” and wellness-driven beauty to gain even more traction. Consumers may be looking to purchase fewer products or invest in multitaskers that streamline their routines without sacrificing efficacy. Wellness rituals may become even more appealing, and body care’s rapid growth plays into this.

I expect that longevity-focused skincare will thrive, particularly among older consumers. These products will appeal to those 45-plus who prioritize long-term skin health and are more likely to have the disposable income to invest in premium, science-backed solutions. Brands that can naturally cater to this audience with breakthrough formulations, clinical results and solutions for skin resilience will be well-positioned for growth.

Unfortunately, we will see more brands struggle or close as competition tightens and consumer expectations rise. Skincare fatigue is real. With so many overlapping claims and lookalike products, brands that fail to offer something truly differentiated—or fail to prove their value—will have a hard keeping pace.

This is far from skincare’s swan song. The brands that grow in this environment will be the ones that cut through the noise, deliver real results and make skincare easier, not more complicated.

STRATEGIES

If they’re not already doing so, brands should be going back to the consumer. Not just relying on data, but actively engaging through focus groups, interviews and surveys to get a real pulse on what matters today. This is key to uncovering new insights and potential white space opportunities that can inform both messaging and innovation.
In the event of a recession, understanding behavioral shifts will be critical. As a L’Oréal skincare marketer during the Great Recession, I saw firsthand that consumers still purchased facial skincare, but many traded down to premium mass brands. Reconnecting with consumers now can help brands anticipate these shifts and build strategies that strengthen the business during challenging times.
This is a good time for brands to leverage proven hero products to attract new user segments. Instead of always chasing newness, doubling down on existing star performers with refreshed messaging and marketing can drive incremental trial, build brand trust and serve as a gateway to the rest of the portfolio.
Build your brand’s community. Loyalty in skincare is a challenge when consumers are overwhelmed with choices. Cultivating a strong customer base ensures repeat purchase and advocacy. Go beyond purchase-based rewards. Offer connection, education and exclusive access to keep consumers engaged long-term.

WINNERS

Brands that have a solid understanding of the market and where they fit. They play within a sizeable addressable market, deeply understand their consumer and proactively seek to learn more. Buzz is important, but the winning brands prioritize strategy and long-term results over short-term viral moments.
Brands with scientific credibility. Those leveraging clinical trials, derm-backed endorsements and patented technology will have an edge over those relying on hype alone.
Brands that are financially sound. With outside investment scaling back, survival will favor brands that have the resources to weather economic uncertainty and the ability to invest in sustained growth.
Brands that can zig while others zag. Brands that think differently, challenge category norms or carve out unique positioning will be the ones that break through.

LOSERS

Brands built on hype with no long-term vision. Those that launched off the back of a fleeting social media moment but lack the ability to pivot or evolve will struggle.
Overpriced brands that look good but offer no meaningful value. Consumers are becoming more discerning, and premium packaging, and imagery alone won’t be enough. Efficacy and performance will be key.

Therese Clark Co-Founder, I Am Not Creative

WINNERS

Anti-boring/disruptive brands that nail their branding, know their audience and fully lean in. In an adjacent industry, we’re drawn to what Liquid Death has done for a boring water category where the brand is the business. Since skincare is more of a commodity now, you need a strong brand that goes against the grain. People buy their merch. I think merch 10% of their revenue. Would people buy your brand’s merch?
Companies that build community first and put customers at the center will strengthen loyalty and help validate the market, pricing strategy, etc. before finalizing a product or launching.
Brands that explore off-beauty retail channels and diversify distribution beyond traditional beauty retailers.
Science/biotech-backed products can win, but youhave to build a strong brand otherwise those technologies never get the attention they should. My favorite biotech scientist always told me science is 20%, marketing is 80%.
Founders with a funding strategy. I think getting (a lot of) customers first before you get capital is best.

LOSERS

Indie brands betting on just one retail channel, but spreading too thin across too many can hurt too. Follow the money and pull focus.
Me-too brands with no unique angle.
Brands stuck in the Instagram era. TikTok, Reddit and Amazon are now table stakes.
Running out of capital (seems obvious, but…)

PREDICTION

I reread the previous article and not much seems to have changed. Many of those insights and predictions still hold true—low barrier to entry, not enough capital to sustain, not enough differentiation, not a big enough reason for customers to care about your brand over something that’s good enough and cheaper, general fatigue.

There are always outliers such as brands that pull off a bootstrapped launch, but that’s getting rare. With high COGs and the risk of a failed launch, going to market without a capital strategy is a big risk. I do think there will be more consolidations and shutdowns.

Adrienne Arieff CSO, Sex with Emily and Link Creative & Associates

Rachel Hirsch is spot on—we’ve reached peak congestion in skincare. Consolidation is the future, and indie brands must rethink how they differentiate.

What this means for brand marketers:

From hero SKU expansion to fewer, better products—Instead of launching multiple new SKUs, brands will focus on core hero products and iterate on efficacy and sustainability.

Less trendy, more timeless—Marketing strategies need to shift from trend chasing to long-term credibility and impact. Brands that educate and build deep loyalty will win.

From mass reach to niche depth—A scattershot approach to influencer marketing is no longer effective. Micro-communities and trust-based advocacy (e.g., derms, aestheticians, targeted UGC) will drive purchasing decisions.

Sustainability and circularity will define premium skincare—In climate-conscious beauty, refillable packaging, upcycled ingredients and waste-free models will matter as much as efficacy. Marketing needs to reinforce this with clear storytelling.

The edited routine era is here—The 12-step routine is dead. Consumers want efficacy-driven, multiuse products that cut through the noise. Messaging should emphasize simplicity, science and results.

Joelle Sayed Founder, Sed Skin

While the skincare market may no longer be experiencing the explosive growth seen at the height of the pandemic, opportunities still exist for brands willing to adapt to a more measured, slow-growth landscape. Vintner’s Daughter proved that patience pays off, waiting several years before introducing a new product after its iconic Active Botanical Serum. From global conglomerates to emerging indie brands, the ability to pivot and evolve is essential for success in today’s saturated market.

Product launches must be intentional—slow, strategic and driven by real consumer demand. Underperforming SKUs should be sunsetted, while loyal customers should be engaged beyond the product itself, invited into a brand’s community and lifestyle. Meeting consumers where they are means recognizing that the majority prioritize natural and organic formulations.

Meanwhile, “skinimalism” has evolved from a fleeting trend into a fundamental shift. Products must be multifunctional. Products must go beyond hydration, delivering brightening and pro-aging benefits, while seamlessly integrating into daily routines.

Over the next year, I predict the skincare category will increasingly align with consumer buying behaviors, actively listening to their needs and responding with thoughtful innovation. A prime example is the Topicals Brightening & Clearing Serum, a top seller that faced criticism for its strong scent. The brand responded by launching an unscented version, demonstrating the power of direct consumer feedback.

Winning brands will embrace a 'must-have' mindset, prioritizing minimal, high-performance routines while maintaining consumer-favorite staples. Today’s skincare products can’t afford to be one-dimensional. They must be multi-tasking essentials that align with the growing intersection of skincare, wellness, and self-care.

As an indie skincare founder, I took a deliberately restrained approach to my brand’s launch, introducing just three single-ingredient, multipurpose facial oils. Over time, I refined the lineup, scaling back to the top performer and adopting a seasonal drop model. Success in this market demands exceptional ingredients, proven efficacy and a willingness to explore alternative distribution and retail partnerships. The reality is, shelf space at the big three—Target, Sephora and Ulta—is scarce.

Frances Grant Strategic Advisor and Consultant

Brands need to double down on their differentiation, especially in this crowded marketplace and economic environment. Building hero products, with star ingredients, efficacious results and leaning on a strong community are all important ingredients in a skincare brand’s success. Going a step further, brands that build a ritual or bring one to life will become even more relevant to the consumer.

Consumers are looking for an escape, to feel safe in an uncertain world and turn to skincare to find meaning, while indulging in self-care and wellness, all while demanding results. I note Michelle Ranavat here as one example who has done this well. She harkens back to her roots in India, using saffron as the star ingredient and brings to life Ayurvedic rituals in a compelling way, with vivid story-telling and imagery.

Brands that will have a harder time are in the mid-range prestige price point and don’t offer enough value and will continue to be challenged by affordable, efficacious brands like The Ordinary. There is also room for brands to play into nostalgia, and we could see “old becomes new again” takes on iconic, ritualistic products from decades past making a comeback.

As for trends, the merging of longevity with women’s health and where scientific innovation can move this conversation forward, I think there will be interesting progress here in the years to come.

Bekah Schoonover Co-Founder, Product and Brand Development, A Beginner's Mind

Brands should get intimate with their consumer. It’s going to be important for brands to understand where to reach their customer plus how to do it in a meaningful way. Figuring out how to compete with brands like Cerave, who are deploying best-in-class marketing campaigns that come with a hefty price tag is not easy. Not every brand can afford that. However, not every brand needs that if they know where and how to reach their target consumer.

Now is the time for skincare brands to get hyper clear on who their consumer is, how to reach them and what matters most to them. Engage with your consumer and enact what they’re telling you.

To me, a best-in-class example of this the Cocokind Customer Retreat hosted by Priscilla Tsai and team. They invited a group of their consumers on a trip to Napa, gave them swag, treated them like influencers, and got to spend real time with their customers to understand their needs, challenges, likes and dislikes. Now they’re using that invaluable information to develop new products.

If you have a founder with a platform like Charlotte Palermino, co-founder of Dieux Skin, take this as an opportunity to not only listen to your consumers, but educate them on your products and ingredients. Both examples are why consumers are trading down from prestige to masstige. Pretty packaging and efficacious results no longer need to come at a premium and consumers know this.

At the end of the day, especially under these uncertain economic times, I think masstige brands who offer compelling and efficacious products that are hyper targeted toward their consumer’s needs and who can build and engage a community will be able to sustain their business during this dip in skincare.

SARAH RAKONITZ STEIN Marketing Consultant

During challenging times, brands should adopt a startup mentality. Focus areas: healthy fundamentals, brand points of difference and a deep understanding of their core consumer. By nurturing their community, they compare them with overall market data. This provides a clear understanding of differentiated opportunities for product innovation and test and learn consumer engagement.

Brands that stay true to their core values, maintain strong fundamentals and continue to innovate will see profitable growth. In contrast, brands that fail to evolve or take a "me-too" approach struggle. They’ve neglected their community.

With the endless expansion, consolidation was inevitable. However, brands will continue to thrive when they deeply understand their consumer, offer meaningful innovation and best meet their needs.

Stacey Levine Brand Marketing and Communications Consultant

In an overcrowded market, consolidation over endless expansion is where the skincare category is heading in 2025. We've seen this over the past 10 years as consumers embraced and then rejected the 10-step Korean skincare regimen in favor of “skinimalism” and multitasking products.

Efficacious skincare relies on consistency. So, as category growth slows, consumers will stick with the products and brands they love and trust rather than experimenting with their dollars. Because of this, the brands that win will be the ones doubling down on loyalty and retention and investing in genuine community building.

Cocokind is a great example. They’ve turned loyal customers into brand evangelists by prioritizing education, transparency and authentic engagement over trend chasing. Instead of just selling skincare, they’ve created a space where consumers feel connected and cared for, even hosting brand trips, not for influencers or press, but for their most loyal customers. Brands that follow that playbook—fostering real relationships—will come out ahead.

If you have any questions you'd like Beauty Independent to ask beauty entrepreneurs and consultants, send them to editor@beautyindependent.com.